March 4, 2026
Global Debt Report 2026. Maintaining debt market resilience under increasing pressure
Global debt markets are facing challenging conditions. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment are increasing pressure on already tense markets. However, debt markets have so far proven resilient.
This stability, however, masks deeper structural developments. The cost of long-term borrowing has increased, and the resulting shift in issuance toward shorter maturities increases refinancing risks.
The growing role of more price-sensitive investors could also make debt markets more vulnerable to shocks. Their future resilience is therefore not guaranteed. This is particularly important since the spread of artificial intelligence and growing defense spending are expected to further increase debt in the markets.
These challenges must be carefully managed to ensure that sovereign and corporate bond markets, with a combined size of $109.000 trillion, continue to provide stable financing to governments and businesses. Global Debt Report 2026 aims to support efforts to shore up the resilience of debt markets.
Key figures
- 29 trillion dollars Governments and corporations are expected to borrow a record amount from bond markets in 2026: 17% more than in 2024.
- 78 % Share of borrowings by OECD governments in 2026 that will be used to refinance existing debt.
- 1,2 trillion dollars Nine major AI players are expected to issue corporate bonds to finance their capital expenditure needs between 2026 and 2030.
Debt-to-GDP ratios increased in most countries in 2025
In 2025 the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 27 OECD countries compared to 2024, in some cases approaching or even exceeding levels recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Among the countries of the G7, the debt-to-GDP ratios of Canada, United States, and United Kingdom were in 2025 substantially in line with those of 2020. In France e Germany, instead, the levels were respectively higher by 5 and 2 percentage points compared to those recorded during the pandemic.
Italy remains among the most indebted countries in the OECD
Italy presents the second highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the OECD area, but in 2025 the value was 11 percentage points lower than the peak reached during the pandemic.
In 11 other OECD countries, instead, in 2025 Nominal GDP grew faster than the debt stock, determining a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio compared to 2024Among the G7 countries, only Japan falls into this group, and in this case the dynamics were largely attributable to inflation.
Il Japan it was in fact the country in which inflation contributed most to the reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio among all OECD members in 2025. The country also recorded an improvement in real GDP growth, passed by –0,2% in 2024 to +1,1% in 2025.
Since 2020, the countries that have recorded the most significant decreases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are Denmark, Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia and Türkiye.
Government and corporate lending is expected to reach $29 trillion in 2026
Governments and corporations are expected to borrow $29.000 trillion from bond markets in 2026. This represents $4.000 trillion, or 17% more than in 2024, and double the level of ten years ago. Central government debt in OECD countries reached $17.000 trillion in 2025. Corporate debt on the markets also increased, reaching $6.800 trillion.
The rising cost of long-term borrowing is increasing the risks of short-term refinancing
Rising interest rates after 2022 continue to impact global debt markets. While short-term rates stabilized in OECD countries in 2025, 30-year yields increased significantly in most countries. Sovereign and corporate borrowers responded to rising long-term interest costs by shifting their issuance to shorter maturities. While this shift reduces short-term interest costs, it also increases short-term refinancing risks.
Changes in the investor base could make markets more vulnerable to shocks
Central banks, the largest national holders of government debt in many OECD countries, have reduced their bond holdings. With persistently high issuance, this means the market is increasingly dependent on price-sensitive investors, such as hedge funds, households, and some foreign investors. This shift could increase market volatility. It also impacts the corporate bond market, allowing growing new corporate issuance to be absorbed by a narrower investor base.
AI-powered lending will have a significant impact on corporate debt markets.
The technology sector has traditionally relied less on external financing than most other sectors. The race for artificial intelligence is changing this dynamic. In 2025, nine major players raised $122 billion from the bond markets, nearly half of all global tech issuance. Overall, they planned $4,1 trillion in capital expenditures.2026-2030.This is $1,1 trillion more than the total capital spending of all U.S. non-financial corporations in 2025.
