30 September 2026
Inflation at 4,2% on an annual basis | Istat CONSUMER PRICES – September 2026. Provisional data
According to preliminary estimates, in September 2026 the national consumer price index for the entire community (NIC), excluding tobacco, recorded a variation of +0,7% on a monthly basis and +4,2% on an annual basis (from +3,3% in the previous month).
The upward trend in inflation is primarily attributable to the price trend of energy products, both regulated (+18,6% to +25,9%) and unregulated (+17,0% to +22,2%), and unprocessed food products (+3,8% to +5,5%). Prices of recreational, cultural, and personal care services (+2,6% to +2,9%) and transportation-related services (+0,8% to +1,6%) are also growing at a faster pace.
Underlying inflation
In September, core inflation, calculated excluding energy and fresh food, rose from +1,5% to +1,7%, as did inflation excluding energy alone, from +1,7% to +2,0%.
The increase in the growth rate of goods prices (from +4,1% to +5,4%) is more marked than that of services (from +2,4% to +2,6%). The gap between the services and goods sectors widens, from -1,7 to -2,8 percentage points.
The trend increase in prices of both food, household and personal care products (from +0,9% to +1,7%) and those of highly frequently purchased products (from +4,3% to +5,3%) is increasing.
The monthly change in the general index largely reflects increases in the prices of regulated (+5,9%) and unregulated (+4,4%) energy products, unprocessed food (+2,2%), and recreational, cultural, and personal care services (+0,5%). Prices of transportation services (-2,5%) and processed food (-0,3%) decreased on a monthly basis.
Average inflation for 2026, acquired in September, rose to +3,1% for the general index and remained stable at +1,9% for the core component.
According to preliminary estimates, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded a change of +2,0% on a monthly basis, due to the end of the summer sales which the NIC does not take into account, and of +4,1% on an annual basis (from +3,2% the previous month).
The most drastic comment
Inflation rises to 4,2% in September 2026 (from +3,3% in August), still influenced by the growth in energy prices (from +17,1% to +22,3%).
In the food sector, prices show an accelerating trend (from +1,0% to +1,8%), due entirely to the unprocessed component (from +3,8% to +5,5%), which is reflected in the "shopping cart" (from +0,9% to +1,7%).
Inflation was also supported by rising prices for recreational, cultural, and personal care services (from 2,6% to 2,9%) and transportation (from 0,8% to 1,6%). Core inflation rose to 1,7% (from 1,5%), and the average annual rate, as measured in September, rose to 3,1%.
Here is an explanation of the most important terms used
Total inflation
It is the rate at which, on average, prices are increasing compared to a year ago.Unprocessed food
The prices of fruit, vegetables, fresh meat, etc.Regulated energy
Energy prices with regulated tariffs (for example, gas and electricity under protection).“Shopping cart”
Everyday goods.Underlying inflation
It measures the trend in prices excluding energy and fresh food.Acquired inflation
This is what average annual inflation would be if prices remained unchanged from now until the end of the year.
